Payback Cycles. Testing Your Machine

Payback Cycles
During relatively short periods of play, the actual payback of a machine may be significantly higher or lower than the long-term average. Since you probably play a given machine for only a few hours at a time, your concern is for short-term rewards, while the casino is interested in long-term profits.
Consequently, from a short-term viewpoint, a slot machine is considered hot when it is paying out more than expected, and it is considered cold when it is paying less than expected. It is widely believed that most machines, regardless of how loose or tight they are to begin with, go through hot cycles and cold cycles. Thus, a hot, tight machine is better than a cold, loose one. The next section explains how to judge whether a machine is currently running hot or cold.

Testing Your Machine

Once you have found a suitable nonprogressive machine, it is prudent to first run a simple test to judge whether it is hot or cold. Do this by playing through one roll of forty quarters ($10) allowing the winnings to collect in the tray or accumulate as credits. In a two-coin machine, this will amount to twenty spins. In a three-coin machine, you will get thirteen spins, with an odd coin left over. When the roll is finished, count the number of coins that have collected in the tray, or look at how many credits you have accumulated. If your winnings are at least 75 percent ($7.50) of what you invested, stick with the machine. If not, move to another machine and repeat the test. Of course, in a dollar machine, your investment will be four times as large, but the testing principle remains the same. In any case, if after the first six spins of the test you have won nothing, the machine is cold, and you should vacate it without carrying the test any further.

If your test winnings are at least 75 percent, but less than 90 percent, the machine is marginal and you may want to repeat the test to find out if it is in an up cycle or down cycle. Should the second test turn out better than the first, the machine is probably in an up cycle. This means the machine is getting hotter, and you should stick with it. Otherwise, abandon the machine. This test does not determine how loose or tight a machine is, but only if it is running hot or cold. Even tight machines have hot cycles.

REEL GOOD ADVICE
Keep in mind that a hot cycle has a limited life, even on a loose machine. Consequently, you should be prepared to quit a hot machine as soon as it appears to be turning cold. An important clue is that it hasn’t paid off in six consecutive spins. In fact, the most conservative players will abandon their machine after five cold spins.
This testing procedure only applies to basic flat-pay machines, and not to progressives. The strategy with progressive slots is to go for the main jackpot, with little concern for smaller wins, as explained later.